Analysis 2020 - Group of 5/Independent teams vs. Power 5 teams
It's an argument that takes place every year. It was an issue all through the BCS years, and continues to be a problem during this new "Power 5" CFB playoff era. We saw teams like Utah and TCU get screwed so many times that they elected to change conferences. We also saw a struggling Big East conference eventually lose most of their teams to the point that the conference was stripped of their "power" status and forced to merge with several lower-perceived teams to form the new AAC conference.
This year was very unique given that the COVID19 crisis caused many games to be cancelled. However, we still did manage to get 16 games. So let's take a closer look at what happened when Power 5 teams played the non-power 5 teams (comprised of Group of 5 conference teams and 'independent' teams).
There were 16 games played in total, not including bowls. Most occurred early in the season and all occurred with the Power 5 teams being the host and home team. Overall, the Group of 5/Indy teams went 6-10.
Here's the conference by conference records:
Sunbelt 3-1
Indy 2-1
AAC 1-2
MWC 0-1
C-USA 0-5
Total: 6-10
ACC 6-3
Big 12 3-3
Pac 12 1-0
Total: 10-6
Here are the individual game by game results:
2020-09-10 UAB lost at Miami FL 31-14
2020-09-12 Arkansas State won at Kansas State 35-31
2020-09-12 Lafayette Louisiana won at Iowa State 31-14
2020-09-12 Coastal Carolina won at Kansas 38-23
2020-09-12 Western Kentucky lost at Louisville 35-21
2020-09-12 UTEP lost at Texas 59-3
2020-09-19 Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State 16-7
2020-09-19 Central Florida won at Georgia Tech 49-21
2020-09-19 South Florida lost at Notre Dame 52-0
2020-09-26 Texas State lost at Boston College 24-21
2020-10-17 Liberty won at Syracuse 38-21
2020-10-31 Charlotte lost at Duke 53-19
2020-11-07 Liberty won at Virginia Tech 38-35
2020-11-21 Liberty lost at North Carolina State 15-14
2020-11-28 San Diego State lost at Colorado 20-10
2020-12-12 Louisiana Tech lost at TCU 52-10
Further break down, here’s an argument to demonstrate parity between the two levels at the top and bottom: Statistical comparison when good Group teams played bad Power teams and vise versa:
For matches involving Power 5 team that would go on to have end of season record above 500 but Group5/Indy team was 500 or below: The group5/indy went 0-4. Hence, the good Power teams always beat the bad Group teams.
However, for matches involving Group of 5/Indy teams that would go on to have end of season record above 500 but Power 5 team was 500 or below: The group5/indy went 4-0. Hence, the good Group teams always beat the bad Power teams.
Hypothesis #1 Good teams beat bad teams, regardless of power status.
Further breakdown, here’s an argument to demonstrate there is more depth at the Power level over the Group level: Statistical comparison when good teams played other good teams and bad teams played other bad teams.
Note: When both teams had end of season record above 500, the group5/indy teams went 1-4.
Note: When both teams had end of season record 500 or below, the group5/indy teams went 1-2
Hypothesis #2 When the good play the good or the bad play the bad, the Power teams are usually better.
Ultimately, there really is not enough of a sample size to come to any strong conclusions. Furthermore, it should be noted that three of the best Group/Indy teams, Coastal Carolina, Cincinnati and BYU, did not get a chance to play against any Power 5 teams, due to various reasons - mostly on account of COVID19 forcing games to be cancelled or Power 5 teams not willing to book games against these teams.
Flaws with the Playoffs and Bowl Games:
The playoffs and bowl season usually offers teams above 500 a chance to compete against each other. However, the CFB Playoff committee refused to respect the Group of 5's best teams.
Three group of 5/Indy teams were undefeated and 8 of them were 1 loss teams, but none of them were given a spot in the playoffs. Furthermore, of these 13 teams, only Cincinnati was given a chance to play a power 5 team in the Bowl seasons - that being Cincinnati vs Georgia.
Undefeated Coastal Carolina and San Jose State were both booked in bowl games against other Group of 5/Indy teams. Furthermore one loss teams: Buffalo, BYU, Liberty, Ball State, and Louisiana-Lafayette were booked bowl games against other Group of 5/Indy teams. Also, one loss teams Kent State, Ohio, and Miami Ohio, will not be playing bowl games. Hence, it could be demonstrated that the powers that be are AFRAID to book top Group of 5/Indy teams against Power 5 teams in bowl games.
In addition to the Cincinnati vs Georgia showdown, there will only be two other bowl games that will feature Power 5 vs Group of 5/Indy teams: Tulsa will play Mississippi State and Army will play West Virginia.
If the 3 bowl games all go in the way of the Group/indy teams, then their overall record against the Power 5 teams could be 9-10, which ultimately, makes for a strong argument that they are just as good as them!!
So, next week, we will get to watch Ohio State vs Clemson and Notre Dame vs Alabama, and the winners will play each other to determine a so-called National Champion. But wouldn't it be much more fun to see an expanded playoff that include ALL and not just some of the best teams? What if we expanded to 8 and had this as quarterfinals??
Ohio State vs Cincinnati
Notre Dame vs Coastal Carolina
Alabama vs Liberty
Clemson vs BYU
I'd bet these would all be great games! Would all four Power 5 teams win? Maybe.. but maybe not! But can we please at least start giving these teams a fair chance to compete and prove themselves?? Wouldn't this make college football better for all?? Hopefully, that day will come!
